Why is gold price falling in October 2026, and should you buy before Dhanteras?

Short answer: gold is falling mainly because interest rates and bond yields are rising around the world, which makes gold (which pays no interest) less attractive to big investors. In India the fall has been smaller because the rupee is weak. Nobody can say for sure where prices go before Dhanteras.

Where prices are (4 October 2026)

• 24K: around ₹1.49–1.51 lakh per 10 grams, depending on the city and source. 22K: around ₹1.37–1.38 lakh.
• In the past week, 24K fell about ₹3,500 per 10 grams and 22K about ₹3,200, roughly 2.3%.
• Globally, spot gold dropped about 3% on 28 September to around $4,156 an ounce, its lowest since 5 August, and was about 3.4% lower over the week to 3 October.

Why it's falling

1. Rising US bond yields: the 10-year US Treasury yield went above 5.2%. When safe bonds pay that much, holding gold costs more in lost interest.

2. Rate-hike bets: markets see a good chance the US Federal Reserve raises rates again in October. The RBI may also raise rates on 7 October.

3. A stronger dollar: gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar usually pushes it down.

4. High oil prices: crude near $100 is feeding inflation fears and rate-hike expectations.

Why Indian prices haven't fallen as much

The rupee slipped to about 96.3 per dollar, its weakest in over two months, which makes imported gold costlier in rupees and cushions the fall.

What analysts are saying

• Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said gold's resilience faces "its toughest test yet" from high real yields and a strong dollar, though ETF demand has held up.
• UBS's Giovanni Staunovo said higher oil and rate-hike expectations could keep yields and the dollar strong.
• Peter Schiff took the opposite view and told investors to "buy now," citing longer-term fiscal and inflation risks.
• HSBC has forecast an average gold price of $4,490 an ounce for 2026, above where it trades now.

If you're planning to buy for Dhanteras

• Watch the RBI decision on 7 October and the US Fed meeting later this month. Both can move prices.
• Some buyers split purchases across a few weeks instead of buying on one day.
• At the jeweller, check the BIS hallmark and HUID number, and compare making charges. Expect 3% GST on the gold and 5% GST on making charges.

This summarises market reports and is not investment advice.